Why Geoff Hurst's 1966 World Cup Final shirt won't make £500,000

The iconic England shirt Sir Geoff Hurst wore in the 1966 World Cup Final is up for sale, again.

The experts at Sotheby's have placed a high-end estimate of £500,000 ($722,000) on the red number 10 Umbro jersey.

Hurst scores England's second, controversial goal in the final

"This shirt, worn by the match's star player, is the most significant obtainable artefact relating to this historic match," explains Sotheby's Gabriel Heaton.

"It represents a legendary moment in the annals of English football, and a sporting achievement that has never been repeated in half a century."

Yet here at Paul Fraser Collectibles we think the £500,000 ($722,000) valuation is highly unrealistic.

Yes, Hurst's hat-trick is arguably the most important contribution to English football history. Yes, this year's 50th anniversary of the victory will increase interest in the object. And yes, England collects its football history with a passion unmatched anywhere in the world.

Yet don't be surprised when, after the big build up, Hurst's shirt fails to make its reserve on July 12.

Why so?

1.       It last auctioned in 2000 for £91,750 ($132,000). And although the market for leading pieces of sports memorabilia has shown good appreciation in that time, growth amounting to 11% per annum would be unusual.

2.       The last time the shirt was offered for sale, in 2010, it failed to find a buyer.

3.       And who has both the money and the desire to own the shirt? Unlike Pele, whose memorabilia auctions tomorrow in a landmark sale and whose 1970 World Cup Final shirt sold for £157,750 ($227,000) in 2002, Hurst's name is largely unknown outside Britain. The buyer will almost certainly be English, which narrows the number of potential buyers considerably.

We're expecting to see West Ham's millionaire owners David Sullivan and David Gold place a bid. Hurst played most of his career at Upton Park, and the shirt would be a wonderful piece to showcase at the Hammers' new stadium at the Olympic Park.

Our prediction? £250,000 ($360,000).

Click here to view Paul Fraser Collectibles' sports memorabilia for sale.

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